I was listening to CSPAN's Road to the Whitehouse on Saturday. There was a Republican event going on - where the various Presidential hopefuls were making a speech. One of them was Tommy Thompson.
His idea for Iraq going forward was: "Look, these guys have been fighting for ages. Let's ask them if they want us there. If they don't let's leave. When we leave, let's give them the various factions what they want. The Kurds will move to Kurdistan for their own region, others will move to other parts of their country, and so on".
I thought raced my mind. Okay, let's do this... and then what? Should we hope it will be "lived happily ever after?"
I doubt it. Case in point: India-Pakistan.
That was a hastily drawn border as the English withdrew their occupation. A mass cross-border migration. Tensions. Bloodshed. Close to sixty years since, this is still a festering issue and a nuclear one.
I personally feel there's no point blaming the Iraqis that they aren't stepping up to fulfil their end of the equation. Such "stepping up" takes time. It has been sixty years since Pakistan has had its independence (with no occupation) but it still struggles with implementing a working democracy. These things take time. Quoting a well known Nobel Prize winner, democracy is not a dish you can cook in a "pressure cooker". In fact, to get to a democracy that works the way the US really proud of, it took the US over 100 years or more. In fact, the US had slavery & racial discrimination well into the early to mid-1900s.
Monday, April 16, 2007
China's Trade Barriers?
I saw the recent news that the US is complaining to the WTO about China's trade practices. Alngside the very same news item was this news item. A high-level business delegation from China was visiting the US to conduct deals worth tens of billions of dollars (as the New York Times puts it: a Spending Spree).
Coincidence? I don't know.
On its face value, the Chinese seem to have mastered the art of playing US against the US. On Capitol Hill, I am sure there a bunch of lobbyists engaged by US businesses trying to complain/erect more trade barriers against China. And there should be an equal bunch of lobbyists engaged other US businesses to ensure the US gets these lucrative business deals instead of any other country.
Who wins? I think politicos do, in the short term. In the long term, as long as the world economy shifts away from Western nations to Asian nations, we will see more and more of this happening. The real money and growth is in Asia. Complain and erect barriers to protect local businesses is good -- but it shouldn't be at the cost of losing access to lucrative and growing markets elsewhere.
And the Chinese know this. Very soon, the Indian will get a copy of this playbook as well. It would be interesting how the drama weaves.
(Speaking of drama, is this just a drama? What if China and the US have already planned on doing these business deals all along? And both knew a PR campaign to divert attention & shield the public outcry as these deals get done -- will help? If that is the case, a well timed "US is not happy with China's trade policies, and the US is complaining. Your government is on your side and is at work" makes good sense to the US locals. On the other hand, China can go back to their country and say "Complaints, schomplaints... Whatever... See, we got the deals we wanted anyway, so be happy, China. Your government is on your side and is at work.")
Coincidence? I don't know.
On its face value, the Chinese seem to have mastered the art of playing US against the US. On Capitol Hill, I am sure there a bunch of lobbyists engaged by US businesses trying to complain/erect more trade barriers against China. And there should be an equal bunch of lobbyists engaged other US businesses to ensure the US gets these lucrative business deals instead of any other country.
Who wins? I think politicos do, in the short term. In the long term, as long as the world economy shifts away from Western nations to Asian nations, we will see more and more of this happening. The real money and growth is in Asia. Complain and erect barriers to protect local businesses is good -- but it shouldn't be at the cost of losing access to lucrative and growing markets elsewhere.
And the Chinese know this. Very soon, the Indian will get a copy of this playbook as well. It would be interesting how the drama weaves.
(Speaking of drama, is this just a drama? What if China and the US have already planned on doing these business deals all along? And both knew a PR campaign to divert attention & shield the public outcry as these deals get done -- will help? If that is the case, a well timed "US is not happy with China's trade policies, and the US is complaining. Your government is on your side and is at work" makes good sense to the US locals. On the other hand, China can go back to their country and say "Complaints, schomplaints... Whatever... See, we got the deals we wanted anyway, so be happy, China. Your government is on your side and is at work.")
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