Very cool video.

The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.

The Ending of an Era

The newspaper business seems to be coming to a close. What an amazing run. With the advent of the internet, search based avertising, the Kindle, etc -- across the board, the world that the printing press ushered in, is slowly going to RIP.

Here's the commomorative final front page of the Seattle P-I.

Wow.

Welcome to the Savings Economy

So, America starts saving again.

It's about time if you asked me. Just that it is a bit inopportune time. Unfortunately and ironically, we need consumers to spend first so that we can get ourselves out of the ditch we are in. Then, start saving.

Saving right now might be the best thing to do on an individual basis, but collectively, it would bring the world economy to a greater halt. As it is, every day, you now hear factories across the globe (including and most importantly, in China), closing shop and laying off people. We also hear how the shipping rates for containers crossing the oceans have come down. And how containers are piling up at the docks. Finally, the holiday spending/retail figures that came out today aren't looking good either.

We need to spend. We need to save. We need to spend... we need to save. It's confusing.

I think Saturday Night live captures this the best.

India's Enron?

When things like this happen, several thoughts come to mind:

1. How could you do this for so long, not get noticed?
2. What's the role of the auditors? How come they didn't figure this out?
3. What's the role of the Board of Directors?

It's a sad day in general.

It's a sad day for the thousands of employees (and their families) as well as the customers of Satyam.

It's a sad day for India because rebuilding trust (once eroded) takes a lot of time. Since Satyam was traded on NYSE, there are going to be a lot of people all over the world who would be losing money. For India to be a global player, it must strengthen it's corporate governance laws and ensure regulatory and judicial bodies have the spine to ruthlessly enforce them. Today, this is lacking.

Finally, it's a sad day for global finance and the entire corporate-world. In the current global economic climate, what we need is shining examples of leadership and excellence. Not examples of cheating, cutting corners, or fraud.

Goldman Sachs Slashes Pay by 45%

Now, that's a serious pay cut.

One could argue that it is a result of weak performance, prevailing conditions, poor decisions, etc.

I personally believe the high-paying financial sector jobs are now seeing what the manufacturing jobs have seen for the past decade.

To quote what is in the article:
“We think the industry is in the process of repricing its labor pool,” Guy Moszkowski, an analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York, wrote in a Dec. 3 note to investors. “We think it’s reasonable to expect this given the very weak earnings and outlook for next year and the fact that the labor environment is inhospitable.”

Globalization's premise of moving labor and capital to areas where the costs are low will have an impact. It is unsustainable to have such huge disparities between nations. There will be a "great levelling". Or as Tom calls it: "The World is Flat".

I wonder if this is the beginning of the trend where pay scales & quality of life in industrialized nations will drop sequentially.

Until of course, there is a massive investment in new technologies and innovations that breed local jobs. Local jobs that are difficult to be outsourced. Local jobs that are attract people community college graduates and PhDs from Ivy league universities, alike.

Mark Cuban's Blog -- Stocks

Fascinating set of entries by Mark Cuban.

http://blogmaverick.com/2008/09/08/talking-stocks-and-money/

The Choice of Biden as Obama's Vice President

There is one specific thing that I am really pleased about, when it comes to the pick.

One word: Amtrak.

Here's the guy who used to board the Amtrak every day, from DC to Delaware. I am truly hoping US finally gets and understand the true benefits of public mass transportation. That's one more way to address the issue of America's addiction to foreign oil.

Indian Stock Analysts

Of late, I have been watching CNBC India, to understand the Indian Stock Market. One thing really strikes me as really odd.

I have been watching this for a couple of weeks now, and I am amazed at all the talking heads on the channel. All the so called experts are basically & purely "technical analysts". Almost everyone on the channel is obsessed with reading charts & interpreting momentum, moving averages, resistances, etc.

Whatever happened to good old fundamental analysts??

It is a sad day...

My Sundays will never be the same.

Among all the news/PR personalities, Tim Russert was at the top of the game.

May he rest in peace.

We found 23 stores that may have this book...

... but, actually none do.

I was looking for this book: "India: From Midnight to the Millennium and Beyond", by Shashi Tharoor. I heard a speech on this book by him - and I decided that it should be the next addition to my book collection.



I was checking if the local Barnes and Noble carried this book - so that to buy this today. Yes, every now and then, I am an impulse buyer to every retailer's delight.



Here's what I found.

"We found 23 stores in or near 20814 that may have this item in-stock as of Apr 20, 2008." Only one minor problem. Except that that each one of them said in the Availability column: "Not in Stock".

I wonder. What's the point of this feature? How hard can it be to show only those stores that have this book in stock? (and in this case: zero.)

Lego's Business and Marketing

My daughter will turn four soon. I was waiting for this time for the past four years, because I would be able to buy her a Lego model.


I was first exposed to Lego thanks to a very kind family friend who gifted a Lego Set to me. My first Lego set was: Lego Bus Station (Model 379), and it was released in 1979. I was reminded of those days all over again today.





Today, I bought my daughter's first Lego set. It is the Ultimate LEGO Building Set (6166). Here's the picture, on the right. We had great fun, and I was transported in time.


So, I went back to the local Lego Store, to get more bricks. And that's where a bunch of things struck me. I was looking for a large brick box. "Sorry", I was told, "we don't carry those". "We can order from the Lego online store and ship it", they said. "That works", I thought to myself.

Except the model I was looking for, was from LegoEducation.com. "Oops, we can't go to that website, from our store". "What?? You are Lego, and that is Lego too... what's going on?" I spent $71 at the store, nevertheless.


There was a gift waiting for me at the cashier's counter. "Because you spent more than $50, here is a Bionicle..." Okay, but I don't want a Bionicle. I don't like the look of those things, honestly. But, if you truly like the fact that I spent over $50, can I get something else in it's place? Nopes, tough luck. I said fine, Bionicle it is. (really, how much better a customer experience would it have been, if they said: you can add $x more worth stuff, because you spent $50... your choice. Now, that would have been delightful.)

Anyway, I went looking at the Lego's website to order the large brick box I wanted online. More weirdness. "Limit to 5". "Stock unavailable". Are they really trying to reduce supply? What's going on here? Are these beanie babies? They are bricks afterall.

Finally, I went to http://www.craigslist.com/. There was a local dude that was selling over 5,000 pieces from his collection, for around $75. So much for "limit to 5".

Lego, you've lost a customer. For me, it is craigslist from now on.

What's makes a champion?

I am watching the 2007 US Open -- between Djokovic and Federer.

I watch Federer play, and I say: it's true. "God made Federer". This guy is stoic, almost like Emperor Ceaser. You look at him and you shudder. He is a lion who knows how and when to kill. He who knows how to unleash absolute killers and when to lie down and relax. You can't box this guy in a corner. When you do, he shows composure and you can count on him to come out with such explosive power that is divine to watch.

So, when you play such a guy, how do you win?

1. Play your best and then better, and then some more.
2. You can't afford misses, unforced errors, or skips.
3. You need to be in absolute top form, every play every shot.
4. You have great physical and mental stamina to duke it out.
5. Winning one game isn't enough. You have to win battles, and then win the war.
6. It's great if you are winning, but never be complacent. That when you are most vulnerable.
7. Always show tremendous respect to your competition. Never take things for granted.
8. Know your strengths and weaknesses. Even better, know your opponent's too. If there are any weaknesses.
9. If you have an opportunity to win, don't mess up. You will get those only once or twice.
10. Stay calm and concentrate. Focus.
11. You are the owner of your destiny. Not the umpires. Not the court. Not the audience. You.

Coming to think of it, almost all of these apply to business as well. Or anything else in life.

Toddler Projects

I have a toddler.

Every weekend (actually, every Friday evening) I wonder: Gee, hmm. Are there any cool craft toddler project for the weekend?

I spend 30 mins on the Internet. Search. Click a bunch of stuff. Most of the projects are like "meh". Not so interesting.

Here's an idea for an entrepreneur. How about if there was a subscription I paid - let's say $10 per month. And every week, I get a project in the mail. The instructions, the materials, additional educational stuff, everything.

At the end of it all, I get to take a picture, post it on the web. Keep track of all the projects we worked on. Many even reminisce 20 years later...

Thoughts?

Bill Gates: Commencement Speech at Harvard

I just read the commencement speech at Harvard, that Bill Gates gave.

I found it expremely inspiring. Now, the next question is: what do I do about it?

Well, over the next three to four weeks, I am going to think hard about a core issue that I am passionate about - where I think I can make a difference, and apply my energies to it in my spare time - and see how I can make a difference.

Wish me luck!

Tommy Thompson's Idea for Iraq

I was listening to CSPAN's Road to the Whitehouse on Saturday. There was a Republican event going on - where the various Presidential hopefuls were making a speech. One of them was Tommy Thompson.

His idea for Iraq going forward was: "Look, these guys have been fighting for ages. Let's ask them if they want us there. If they don't let's leave. When we leave, let's give them the various factions what they want. The Kurds will move to Kurdistan for their own region, others will move to other parts of their country, and so on".

I thought raced my mind. Okay, let's do this... and then what? Should we hope it will be "lived happily ever after?"

I doubt it. Case in point: India-Pakistan.

That was a hastily drawn border as the English withdrew their occupation. A mass cross-border migration. Tensions. Bloodshed. Close to sixty years since, this is still a festering issue and a nuclear one.

I personally feel there's no point blaming the Iraqis that they aren't stepping up to fulfil their end of the equation. Such "stepping up" takes time. It has been sixty years since Pakistan has had its independence (with no occupation) but it still struggles with implementing a working democracy. These things take time. Quoting a well known Nobel Prize winner, democracy is not a dish you can cook in a "pressure cooker". In fact, to get to a democracy that works the way the US really proud of, it took the US over 100 years or more. In fact, the US had slavery & racial discrimination well into the early to mid-1900s.

China's Trade Barriers?

I saw the recent news that the US is complaining to the WTO about China's trade practices. Alngside the very same news item was this news item. A high-level business delegation from China was visiting the US to conduct deals worth tens of billions of dollars (as the New York Times puts it: a Spending Spree).

Coincidence? I don't know.

On its face value, the Chinese seem to have mastered the art of playing US against the US. On Capitol Hill, I am sure there a bunch of lobbyists engaged by US businesses trying to complain/erect more trade barriers against China. And there should be an equal bunch of lobbyists engaged other US businesses to ensure the US gets these lucrative business deals instead of any other country.

Who wins? I think politicos do, in the short term. In the long term, as long as the world economy shifts away from Western nations to Asian nations, we will see more and more of this happening. The real money and growth is in Asia. Complain and erect barriers to protect local businesses is good -- but it shouldn't be at the cost of losing access to lucrative and growing markets elsewhere.

And the Chinese know this. Very soon, the Indian will get a copy of this playbook as well. It would be interesting how the drama weaves.

(Speaking of drama, is this just a drama? What if China and the US have already planned on doing these business deals all along? And both knew a PR campaign to divert attention & shield the public outcry as these deals get done -- will help? If that is the case, a well timed "US is not happy with China's trade policies, and the US is complaining. Your government is on your side and is at work" makes good sense to the US locals. On the other hand, China can go back to their country and say "Complaints, schomplaints... Whatever... See, we got the deals we wanted anyway, so be happy, China. Your government is on your side and is at work.")

Types of CEOs

I recall reading a while back a Wall Street Journal article that was discussing the backgrounds of Chinese diplomats vs. American diplomats. Chinese diplomats were engineers by profession whereas Americans tended to be lawyers.

I wonder if there has been any analysis done on how a company performs in the long-term based on the attitudes of the key leader.

I believe there are three types of attributes.

1. An engineer: Person who sees problems, and thinks about ways to solve them.
2. A businessman: Person who sees problems, and calculates the business opportunity.
3. A lawyer: Person who sees problems, and tries to fix it by decree.

In the long-term, I think engineers tend to generate the most shareholder value. But, I don't have the data to prove this.

Comments?

Got (cloned) Milk?

After five years of study, the FDA tentatively concluded that milk and meat from cloned farm animals are okay. I think the bigger news is that consumers need not know if their meat or milk is from a cloned animal or not.

Ostensibly, it is not required because: (a) it is just one of the many "techniques" that industrialized farms already use (b) it improves the safety of the animals (c) it improves the "quality" of milk and meat (d) it is cloning, hence there is nothing different! (e) it is actually the meat and milk from the offsprings of cloned animals, not the initially cloned animals (f) it will reduce the cost of food production and therefore the price consumers pay... and more.

I am all for scientific advancements. But, I would like to know if what I eat and drink is from a cloned animal. Would you?

That aside, what scares me is if the next frontier is genetically modified animals, where the main objective is to enhance the yield of meat and milk from a single animal. Once again, this is being done in agriculture crops already. Yield enhancement in seeds and fruits is widely seen as beneficial. Many countries have escaped famine and poverty because of such techniques.

Should we allow this in the case of live stock? It's a tough call.

I think science crosses a line when we raise genetically modified "high-yield" varities of sheep, cattle, pigs, and chicken. I shudder to think how these animals will look like, let alone consume their products.

And before I do, I do want to be informed.

Lalu and the Indian Railways Turnaround Story

There is a lot written in the press lately about how Lalu engineered a dramatic financial turnaround and how MBA students are gathering to really understand what happened.

I think the the story is indeed impressive and worth a close study. After all, consider this:

• the Indian Railways is the world's largest employer. Almost every other statistic about the Indian Railways is equally staggering in scope.
• one of the key hurdles for the continued Indian GDP growth is infrastructure & transport
• the Indian Railways was on the verge of bankrupcy.

Just as much analysis has been done on how the then Finance Minister Manmohan Singh engineered a balance of payments turnaround in 1991, this one is also worth some examination.

I do credit Lalu for his willingness to give his chain of command some responsibility, authority, and accountability. I have tremendous faith in the IAS cadres (still!) -- and I believe that they will do the right thing if they are given a chance. I think that is what happened here. (As a side note, I think IAS officers deserve a much need revision in salaries. There is a significant income disparity between the private and public sector that is unhealthy. We need to pay better if we want to retain and attract the best. But, let's save that conversation for another day).

For now, I am impressed with what the Indian Railways has achieved! Awesome! Great job!

Let's move on to other areas that need similar attention.

Let's see. Seaports? Highways? Airports?

Indra Nooyi: PepsiCo's New CEO

Indra Nooyi is Pepsi’s fifth CEO!

BRAVO!

Now, that’s an accomplishment. An India-born, female CEO for a Fortune company with over $33 billion in revenues. A ringing testament that the American Dream lives on. As a non-immigrant alien in the US myself – news like this makes me truly cherish American values.

Who is she, after all? Here’s a brief on Indra Krishnamurthy Nooyi. (I have collected this information from various sources).

Personal details: Born: October 28, 1955 in Chennai, India; married to Raj Nooyi (Management Consultant); has two daughters; lives in Greenwich, CT

Education: BS in Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry, Madras Christian College (1976); MBA from Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta (1978); Masters in Public and Private Management, Yale University (1980).

Work experience: Johnson & Johnson and Mettur Beardsell (unknown); Boston Consulting Group (1980-86); Motorola (1986-90), ABB (1990-94), PepsiCo (1994-)

Positions held: Product Manager, (Johnson & Johnson and Mettur Beardsell); Director, International Corporate Strategy (BCG); Vice-president of Corporate Strategy and Planning (Motorola); Vice-President and Director of Corporate Strategy and Strategic Marketing (ABB); Senior Vice-President Strategic Planning (PepsiCo); Chief Financial Officer (PepsiCo)

Other affiliations: Board Member, Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Board Member, President's Council on International Activities, Yale; Board Member, School of Management, Yale University; Board Member, International Rescue Committee Board; Board Member, Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts in New York City; Board Member, Motorola; Board Member, PlaNet Finance; Board Member, Greenwich Breast Cancer Alliance; Board Member, Eisenhower Fellowships; Board Member, Asia Society; Board Member, PepsiCo; and Board Member, PepsiCo Foundation.

Other Information: At PepsiCo, she led worldwide strategic direction, and merger, acquisition and divestiture activities. She played key roles in the Tricon spin-off, purchasing Tropicana and the public offering of Pepsi-Cola Bottling Group. She was President of PepsiCo-Quaker Oats merged entity.

Controversy: Stirred the blogosphere with negative remarks made during a speech to the 2005 graduating class of Columbia University’s Business School. She issued a public apology later on.

There you have it.

Why am I so excited? Although I don't know her, I see several things I can learn from her.

• She has been in the “corporate world” for over 20 years. She has worked in four companies during that time. Just four companies before she joined PepsiCo. You don’t have to switch too many jobs to get ahead. Patience and hard work pays.
• That said, she has switched jobs to get ahead. I think she found "home" in PepsiCo since she has been with PepsiCo since 1994 (that’s 12 years and running). You need to find a "home" and once you do, you need to stay, sow, and reap rewards. This could take time.
• She is a Member of the Board of Directors at Motorola (her former employer). You can advance in your career without burning bridges.
• PepsiCo is home to one of the best “marketing talent” in the world. Check out the Pepsi brands.
• Her “formula” for success:
• True success is being happy with yourself, and being fulfilled. Success isn’t about money, prestige, or power because net worth can never define self worth.
• Aim high and put your heart into it. There are no limits to what you can do.
• Fulfill your potential by trying to be the best. Work hard to get there.
• Devote your time, your life, to doing what you love the most. Knowing what you want to do in life, those who have triumphed at figuring out that issue should consider themselves tremendously blessed.
• Be yourself, and never hide what makes you.
• Make the best of what you’ve been given.
• Keep an open mind. Be curious and never stop learning. Such learning should not be restricted to academic knowledge, but be supplemented with “street smarts” and being aware of matters and issues in the real world.
• Success comes with reaching out and integrating with the community. Give back to the communities and neighborhoods, more than what you took out of them.
• The pillar of success rests on family, friends and faith. When things look bleak and uncertain, it’s your family, friends and faith that pull you through.

Congratuations, Indra! And thanks for shining the light and leading the way.