Indian Stock Analysts

Of late, I have been watching CNBC India, to understand the Indian Stock Market. One thing really strikes me as really odd.

I have been watching this for a couple of weeks now, and I am amazed at all the talking heads on the channel. All the so called experts are basically & purely "technical analysts". Almost everyone on the channel is obsessed with reading charts & interpreting momentum, moving averages, resistances, etc.

Whatever happened to good old fundamental analysts??

It is a sad day...

My Sundays will never be the same.

Among all the news/PR personalities, Tim Russert was at the top of the game.

May he rest in peace.

We found 23 stores that may have this book...

... but, actually none do.

I was looking for this book: "India: From Midnight to the Millennium and Beyond", by Shashi Tharoor. I heard a speech on this book by him - and I decided that it should be the next addition to my book collection.



I was checking if the local Barnes and Noble carried this book - so that to buy this today. Yes, every now and then, I am an impulse buyer to every retailer's delight.



Here's what I found.

"We found 23 stores in or near 20814 that may have this item in-stock as of Apr 20, 2008." Only one minor problem. Except that that each one of them said in the Availability column: "Not in Stock".

I wonder. What's the point of this feature? How hard can it be to show only those stores that have this book in stock? (and in this case: zero.)

Lego's Business and Marketing

My daughter will turn four soon. I was waiting for this time for the past four years, because I would be able to buy her a Lego model.


I was first exposed to Lego thanks to a very kind family friend who gifted a Lego Set to me. My first Lego set was: Lego Bus Station (Model 379), and it was released in 1979. I was reminded of those days all over again today.





Today, I bought my daughter's first Lego set. It is the Ultimate LEGO Building Set (6166). Here's the picture, on the right. We had great fun, and I was transported in time.


So, I went back to the local Lego Store, to get more bricks. And that's where a bunch of things struck me. I was looking for a large brick box. "Sorry", I was told, "we don't carry those". "We can order from the Lego online store and ship it", they said. "That works", I thought to myself.

Except the model I was looking for, was from LegoEducation.com. "Oops, we can't go to that website, from our store". "What?? You are Lego, and that is Lego too... what's going on?" I spent $71 at the store, nevertheless.


There was a gift waiting for me at the cashier's counter. "Because you spent more than $50, here is a Bionicle..." Okay, but I don't want a Bionicle. I don't like the look of those things, honestly. But, if you truly like the fact that I spent over $50, can I get something else in it's place? Nopes, tough luck. I said fine, Bionicle it is. (really, how much better a customer experience would it have been, if they said: you can add $x more worth stuff, because you spent $50... your choice. Now, that would have been delightful.)

Anyway, I went looking at the Lego's website to order the large brick box I wanted online. More weirdness. "Limit to 5". "Stock unavailable". Are they really trying to reduce supply? What's going on here? Are these beanie babies? They are bricks afterall.

Finally, I went to http://www.craigslist.com/. There was a local dude that was selling over 5,000 pieces from his collection, for around $75. So much for "limit to 5".

Lego, you've lost a customer. For me, it is craigslist from now on.

What's makes a champion?

I am watching the 2007 US Open -- between Djokovic and Federer.

I watch Federer play, and I say: it's true. "God made Federer". This guy is stoic, almost like Emperor Ceaser. You look at him and you shudder. He is a lion who knows how and when to kill. He who knows how to unleash absolute killers and when to lie down and relax. You can't box this guy in a corner. When you do, he shows composure and you can count on him to come out with such explosive power that is divine to watch.

So, when you play such a guy, how do you win?

1. Play your best and then better, and then some more.
2. You can't afford misses, unforced errors, or skips.
3. You need to be in absolute top form, every play every shot.
4. You have great physical and mental stamina to duke it out.
5. Winning one game isn't enough. You have to win battles, and then win the war.
6. It's great if you are winning, but never be complacent. That when you are most vulnerable.
7. Always show tremendous respect to your competition. Never take things for granted.
8. Know your strengths and weaknesses. Even better, know your opponent's too. If there are any weaknesses.
9. If you have an opportunity to win, don't mess up. You will get those only once or twice.
10. Stay calm and concentrate. Focus.
11. You are the owner of your destiny. Not the umpires. Not the court. Not the audience. You.

Coming to think of it, almost all of these apply to business as well. Or anything else in life.

Toddler Projects

I have a toddler.

Every weekend (actually, every Friday evening) I wonder: Gee, hmm. Are there any cool craft toddler project for the weekend?

I spend 30 mins on the Internet. Search. Click a bunch of stuff. Most of the projects are like "meh". Not so interesting.

Here's an idea for an entrepreneur. How about if there was a subscription I paid - let's say $10 per month. And every week, I get a project in the mail. The instructions, the materials, additional educational stuff, everything.

At the end of it all, I get to take a picture, post it on the web. Keep track of all the projects we worked on. Many even reminisce 20 years later...

Thoughts?

Bill Gates: Commencement Speech at Harvard

I just read the commencement speech at Harvard, that Bill Gates gave.

I found it expremely inspiring. Now, the next question is: what do I do about it?

Well, over the next three to four weeks, I am going to think hard about a core issue that I am passionate about - where I think I can make a difference, and apply my energies to it in my spare time - and see how I can make a difference.

Wish me luck!

Tommy Thompson's Idea for Iraq

I was listening to CSPAN's Road to the Whitehouse on Saturday. There was a Republican event going on - where the various Presidential hopefuls were making a speech. One of them was Tommy Thompson.

His idea for Iraq going forward was: "Look, these guys have been fighting for ages. Let's ask them if they want us there. If they don't let's leave. When we leave, let's give them the various factions what they want. The Kurds will move to Kurdistan for their own region, others will move to other parts of their country, and so on".

I thought raced my mind. Okay, let's do this... and then what? Should we hope it will be "lived happily ever after?"

I doubt it. Case in point: India-Pakistan.

That was a hastily drawn border as the English withdrew their occupation. A mass cross-border migration. Tensions. Bloodshed. Close to sixty years since, this is still a festering issue and a nuclear one.

I personally feel there's no point blaming the Iraqis that they aren't stepping up to fulfil their end of the equation. Such "stepping up" takes time. It has been sixty years since Pakistan has had its independence (with no occupation) but it still struggles with implementing a working democracy. These things take time. Quoting a well known Nobel Prize winner, democracy is not a dish you can cook in a "pressure cooker". In fact, to get to a democracy that works the way the US really proud of, it took the US over 100 years or more. In fact, the US had slavery & racial discrimination well into the early to mid-1900s.

China's Trade Barriers?

I saw the recent news that the US is complaining to the WTO about China's trade practices. Alngside the very same news item was this news item. A high-level business delegation from China was visiting the US to conduct deals worth tens of billions of dollars (as the New York Times puts it: a Spending Spree).

Coincidence? I don't know.

On its face value, the Chinese seem to have mastered the art of playing US against the US. On Capitol Hill, I am sure there a bunch of lobbyists engaged by US businesses trying to complain/erect more trade barriers against China. And there should be an equal bunch of lobbyists engaged other US businesses to ensure the US gets these lucrative business deals instead of any other country.

Who wins? I think politicos do, in the short term. In the long term, as long as the world economy shifts away from Western nations to Asian nations, we will see more and more of this happening. The real money and growth is in Asia. Complain and erect barriers to protect local businesses is good -- but it shouldn't be at the cost of losing access to lucrative and growing markets elsewhere.

And the Chinese know this. Very soon, the Indian will get a copy of this playbook as well. It would be interesting how the drama weaves.

(Speaking of drama, is this just a drama? What if China and the US have already planned on doing these business deals all along? And both knew a PR campaign to divert attention & shield the public outcry as these deals get done -- will help? If that is the case, a well timed "US is not happy with China's trade policies, and the US is complaining. Your government is on your side and is at work" makes good sense to the US locals. On the other hand, China can go back to their country and say "Complaints, schomplaints... Whatever... See, we got the deals we wanted anyway, so be happy, China. Your government is on your side and is at work.")

Types of CEOs

I recall reading a while back a Wall Street Journal article that was discussing the backgrounds of Chinese diplomats vs. American diplomats. Chinese diplomats were engineers by profession whereas Americans tended to be lawyers.

I wonder if there has been any analysis done on how a company performs in the long-term based on the attitudes of the key leader.

I believe there are three types of attributes.

1. An engineer: Person who sees problems, and thinks about ways to solve them.
2. A businessman: Person who sees problems, and calculates the business opportunity.
3. A lawyer: Person who sees problems, and tries to fix it by decree.

In the long-term, I think engineers tend to generate the most shareholder value. But, I don't have the data to prove this.

Comments?

Got (cloned) Milk?

After five years of study, the FDA tentatively concluded that milk and meat from cloned farm animals are okay. I think the bigger news is that consumers need not know if their meat or milk is from a cloned animal or not.

Ostensibly, it is not required because: (a) it is just one of the many "techniques" that industrialized farms already use (b) it improves the safety of the animals (c) it improves the "quality" of milk and meat (d) it is cloning, hence there is nothing different! (e) it is actually the meat and milk from the offsprings of cloned animals, not the initially cloned animals (f) it will reduce the cost of food production and therefore the price consumers pay... and more.

I am all for scientific advancements. But, I would like to know if what I eat and drink is from a cloned animal. Would you?

That aside, what scares me is if the next frontier is genetically modified animals, where the main objective is to enhance the yield of meat and milk from a single animal. Once again, this is being done in agriculture crops already. Yield enhancement in seeds and fruits is widely seen as beneficial. Many countries have escaped famine and poverty because of such techniques.

Should we allow this in the case of live stock? It's a tough call.

I think science crosses a line when we raise genetically modified "high-yield" varities of sheep, cattle, pigs, and chicken. I shudder to think how these animals will look like, let alone consume their products.

And before I do, I do want to be informed.

Lalu and the Indian Railways Turnaround Story

There is a lot written in the press lately about how Lalu engineered a dramatic financial turnaround and how MBA students are gathering to really understand what happened.

I think the the story is indeed impressive and worth a close study. After all, consider this:

• the Indian Railways is the world's largest employer. Almost every other statistic about the Indian Railways is equally staggering in scope.
• one of the key hurdles for the continued Indian GDP growth is infrastructure & transport
• the Indian Railways was on the verge of bankrupcy.

Just as much analysis has been done on how the then Finance Minister Manmohan Singh engineered a balance of payments turnaround in 1991, this one is also worth some examination.

I do credit Lalu for his willingness to give his chain of command some responsibility, authority, and accountability. I have tremendous faith in the IAS cadres (still!) -- and I believe that they will do the right thing if they are given a chance. I think that is what happened here. (As a side note, I think IAS officers deserve a much need revision in salaries. There is a significant income disparity between the private and public sector that is unhealthy. We need to pay better if we want to retain and attract the best. But, let's save that conversation for another day).

For now, I am impressed with what the Indian Railways has achieved! Awesome! Great job!

Let's move on to other areas that need similar attention.

Let's see. Seaports? Highways? Airports?

Indra Nooyi: PepsiCo's New CEO

Indra Nooyi is Pepsi’s fifth CEO!

BRAVO!

Now, that’s an accomplishment. An India-born, female CEO for a Fortune company with over $33 billion in revenues. A ringing testament that the American Dream lives on. As a non-immigrant alien in the US myself – news like this makes me truly cherish American values.

Who is she, after all? Here’s a brief on Indra Krishnamurthy Nooyi. (I have collected this information from various sources).

Personal details: Born: October 28, 1955 in Chennai, India; married to Raj Nooyi (Management Consultant); has two daughters; lives in Greenwich, CT

Education: BS in Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry, Madras Christian College (1976); MBA from Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta (1978); Masters in Public and Private Management, Yale University (1980).

Work experience: Johnson & Johnson and Mettur Beardsell (unknown); Boston Consulting Group (1980-86); Motorola (1986-90), ABB (1990-94), PepsiCo (1994-)

Positions held: Product Manager, (Johnson & Johnson and Mettur Beardsell); Director, International Corporate Strategy (BCG); Vice-president of Corporate Strategy and Planning (Motorola); Vice-President and Director of Corporate Strategy and Strategic Marketing (ABB); Senior Vice-President Strategic Planning (PepsiCo); Chief Financial Officer (PepsiCo)

Other affiliations: Board Member, Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Board Member, President's Council on International Activities, Yale; Board Member, School of Management, Yale University; Board Member, International Rescue Committee Board; Board Member, Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts in New York City; Board Member, Motorola; Board Member, PlaNet Finance; Board Member, Greenwich Breast Cancer Alliance; Board Member, Eisenhower Fellowships; Board Member, Asia Society; Board Member, PepsiCo; and Board Member, PepsiCo Foundation.

Other Information: At PepsiCo, she led worldwide strategic direction, and merger, acquisition and divestiture activities. She played key roles in the Tricon spin-off, purchasing Tropicana and the public offering of Pepsi-Cola Bottling Group. She was President of PepsiCo-Quaker Oats merged entity.

Controversy: Stirred the blogosphere with negative remarks made during a speech to the 2005 graduating class of Columbia University’s Business School. She issued a public apology later on.

There you have it.

Why am I so excited? Although I don't know her, I see several things I can learn from her.

• She has been in the “corporate world” for over 20 years. She has worked in four companies during that time. Just four companies before she joined PepsiCo. You don’t have to switch too many jobs to get ahead. Patience and hard work pays.
• That said, she has switched jobs to get ahead. I think she found "home" in PepsiCo since she has been with PepsiCo since 1994 (that’s 12 years and running). You need to find a "home" and once you do, you need to stay, sow, and reap rewards. This could take time.
• She is a Member of the Board of Directors at Motorola (her former employer). You can advance in your career without burning bridges.
• PepsiCo is home to one of the best “marketing talent” in the world. Check out the Pepsi brands.
• Her “formula” for success:
• True success is being happy with yourself, and being fulfilled. Success isn’t about money, prestige, or power because net worth can never define self worth.
• Aim high and put your heart into it. There are no limits to what you can do.
• Fulfill your potential by trying to be the best. Work hard to get there.
• Devote your time, your life, to doing what you love the most. Knowing what you want to do in life, those who have triumphed at figuring out that issue should consider themselves tremendously blessed.
• Be yourself, and never hide what makes you.
• Make the best of what you’ve been given.
• Keep an open mind. Be curious and never stop learning. Such learning should not be restricted to academic knowledge, but be supplemented with “street smarts” and being aware of matters and issues in the real world.
• Success comes with reaching out and integrating with the community. Give back to the communities and neighborhoods, more than what you took out of them.
• The pillar of success rests on family, friends and faith. When things look bleak and uncertain, it’s your family, friends and faith that pull you through.

Congratuations, Indra! And thanks for shining the light and leading the way.

Stock Markets: What if they are open on the weekends

Just a thought.

What if the stock markets remain open through the weekends? Okay, okay... maybe not Sunday as well... but seriously, what if a stock exchange said, we are open and trading on Saturday?

I think there will be a lot of "individual investors" who would be willing to invest in stocks, research, etc. And they can come back to work on Monday for their regular jobs.

Thoughts? (By the way: Post Offices are open on Saturday, so are Banks, public transportation systems, and your local grocery stores. Why not the stock markets?)

Immigration: US at a Cross Roads

As a legal alien on a H1B visa, I truly empathize with Wall Street Journal's article on Dr. Sengupta. Very nicely written.

It is true that illegal immigrants play a important role in the US economy and their status needs to be addressed. However, it saddens me that this often blocks real solutions to the plight of those who played by the rules. It is an irony that legal immigrants aspiring for citizenship are stuck in process, backlogs and paperwork for years, in an inefficient system very similar to that which plagues the countries they emigrate from.

This, especially from a country that welcomes immigrants, values meritocracy, and rewards those who chase the American Dream. Of late this dream is turning to just wishful thinking, and for some a nightmare. Congress needs to act now to ensure US continues to remain attractive to bright young minds worldwide such that they are willing to relocate, earn advanced degrees, buy homes, raise families, launch companies, create jobs, and contribute enormously to the economy.

US Needs Immigration Policies That Make Sense

Student Visas: Advanced education and US research depends on immigrants. Students who come to the US to pursue degrees should be welcomed, and not shunned. Today, US consulates worldwide deny student visas to those who don't show a reasonable evidence proving why they won't stay back in the US after getting their degree. Instead, let us encourage students to study in the US and settle here.

Employment Based Visas: I can see how US citizens could feel deprived of job opportunities if H1B visas are given without due process or diligence. But that should not be the case for those international students who have graduated from US universities. For example, any international student who has studied and obtained a degree in the US on a full tuition scholarship should be automatically be given a employment visa and a path to a green card. Why would the US not want these students to stay here, and instead prefer they return to their countries. And let's allow their spouses to work too.

Green Cards: Any one who has legally worked in the US for five or more years, paid taxes, social security, abided by the laws -- should be given the option to obtain a green card. Current green cards don't offer the "secure permanent residency" the way a citizenship offers. By that I mean: if you have a green card, and choose to work out of US for longer periods of time (more than once), and decide to come back to the US -- you could risk losing your permanent residency status. You would need to wait for five more years, before you can apply for a US citizenship, that confers you those rights. Why?

Is Security at Odds With Prosperity?

I understand the need for greater security after 9/11. At the same time, the world economy is in transition. Rapidly growing economies like India and China are tantalizing for emigrants to return back to. Great many have. The US is at a cross-roads. Let not 9/11 be the beginning to the end of the miracle makes USA work. Let's be paranoid. Not because we may be attacked once again, but because we may forever lose the charm that was once US. Let's tear down walls and build bridges instead. Let's be the land of free and the home of the brave. Once again.

Canon Digital Rebel: My Review

I own a Canon Digital Rebel. Many of my friends have asked me my thoughts. Here are some comments.

Number of pixels: As you may be aware this is a 8MB camera. I find that 8MB is the perfect pixel size support needed and I intend to stick with this for long time. Unless you are into professional / commercial photography -- where you may need to blow up pictures to poster sizes -- you really don't need more than 8MB. {Remember: photos quickly fill up your computer hard-drive. More on that later. Now, I am quite ruthless about the photos I keep, and I trash many pictures I take. But I digress.} The BIGGEST advantage I see in having an 8MB camera is that it gives you the luxury to crop images to remove extraneous noise and helps you dramatically improve picture composition without sacrificing quality of the image when you print it (or) view it online. Finally, I think the Canon EOS 20D, is a bit of an overkill, for my needs. It is bulkier too.

Size of the camera: If you are graduating from a simple point and click, you may find this camera a bit bulky to haul around. But, when the pictures come back and when I see what I have taken, I find it is well worth it. {By the way, I also have a Canon Powershot A80, which I also carry around, just because it is quicker, smaller, etc. And most importantly, my wife finds the Digital Rebel a bit overwhelming to handle, so she uses the Canon Powershot A80}. Speaking of point and click... since I used a Canon before, I was very familiar with the menus on the Rebel (which are quite similar to the Powershot). In that sense, you may have a learning curve, if you are graduating from a Nikon or some other camera.

Lenses: I have the 18-55mm lens that came with the package, and I also went to Wal-mart and bought a zoom lens from 75-300mm. (Cost: around $200). Yes, I am not covered from 55mm to 75mm (and there have been instances when I have seen my photo subjects fall in that range... but oh well... for the most part I am covered). Since Canon comes with over 300+ lenses, you really have a wide array to choose from. I recommend you purchase the zoom lens as well, because it gives you unbelievable liberty to shoot subjects from a distance (kids playing, etc), without making them conscious.

Additional accessories: If you are going to invest in a digital SLR camera with a 8MB pixel range, there are some accessories that you absolutely need to buy. (a) Simple UV filters for your lenses, to protect them from dust, specks, etc. (b) An external USB based hard drive, to quickly transfer your photos, especially when you are on a trip (doesn't need a computer). (c) A compact flash card reader (reading pictures from the camera directly takes ages). (d) a tripod (you never know when you want to take an awesome long exposure shot) (d) 1GB compact flash card (don't buy a 2GB card. if you want 2GBs, buy two 1GB's instead. Gives you greater flexibility). (e) an extra camera battery. (f) lens cleaning solutions, etc.

I recommend you also visit these two websites to read and learn more, especially the comparisons between Canon and Nikon.
http://www.dcviews.com/
http://www.dpreview.com/

Here are some of the pictures I took on my India Trip last Winter -- with this camera:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/98013786@N00/

I will keep adding to this post as I keep using the camera.

Call to Action: Bollywood

There is a lot of positive press about India and its prospects. Yet, Bollywood and the "rest of the world" frequently potrays India as what it was in the 1950s or the 1970s. Productions are packed with melodrama, family feuds, corruption, and lack an adequate representation of the real change that is sweeping through the Indian society.

For much of the twentieth century, America exported its "culture" and the "American Dream", through on-screen and off-screen productions. While there are were movies that discussed black lynching, racial discrimination, hippie culture, etc -- there was a flood of movies about that potrayed fashion, work, money, suburbia, etc.

This is a golden opportunity for India's Bollywood. Let's have some movies specifically targetted at the global audiences, that go beyond "Bride and Prejudice"; "Bend it Like Beckham" and others (which by the way are wholesome entertainment and must be seen).

While there is no dearth in material or ideas in India, most "off-beat" movies are usually copies of American or western themes that have already been used.

Instead, let the movies cover the Indian culture. Let's show to the world, how India works. Its education system, its entrepreneurial culture, its value systems, and its financial policies, etc.

Corruption -- Why Does it Exist?

The Indian Economy Blog has an interesting post on corruption.

Interesting reading.

It is stating the obviosu that corruption in all forms results in inefficient allocation of resources. However, the reasons it exists from time immemorial is because of some fundamental realities.

The foremost of which is the income disparity between public and private sector. Until you see a comparable income level between these two sectors, human tendency is to make up for the difference by getting income from other means. In fact, fostering an articifial inefficiency in the system (such as creating a waiting list for phones, or licenses) -- supports a self fulfilling profecy. Sure, "competition" and "privatisation" helps in removing corruption, but that strategy in a sense accepts the inability to ever achieve parity in incomes between the two sectors.

Gmail -- Making it "Enterprise Class"

Here are some ideas to make Gmail better:

1. Make every "button" on the gmail interface "moveable". In other words, I should be able to pick and choose if I want "Archive" on top of my inbox messages, or if I want "Delete" above it.
   
2. I should be able to create my own buttons, based on frequent actions I execute. For example, I would like a button that says: "Delete Foreever" right in my inbox message view.
3. After I am done reading a message, and I delete it... please don't pop back to the Inbox view... can you show me the next message in the queue? Better still, can there be a "paned" approach to viewing email -- so that I can see both the inbox view and the message view at the same time? (Yes, I am spoiled by Outlook).
   
4. Attach a file: can we support drag and drop, from my file folders, directly? Also, I would like to select multiple files and drag them in.
5. Since I use Google Desktop, would it be possible for Gmail to -- based on the message I am creating (and to whom I am sending it to) -- automatically pop up in a side window the possible files that may need to be attached to the message, so that I don't have to search for them? Similarly, Can Google Desktop Search provide a "button" that says: Add to Gmail message?
6. For the attachments I receieve, can Google Desktop Search "automagically" file them away in the respective folders, based on the content it sees?
7. Can Gmail support shortcuts: Ctrl-S (save), Ctrl-O (open), Ctrl-D (delete), Ctrl-R (reply), Ctrl-E (Send), Ctrl-W (reply-all), and more?
8. Why doesn't Gmail support "right click" new window or new tab? For example, as I am composing this message, I would like to right click on "Inbox" and open it in a new tab or a new window...
9. Yes, I like the fact that you can "search" gmail, and not "file" emails. But, really, I would like to create file folders. I know right now, you can associate labels, and you can search by labels, etc... But, puhlease, can I have my folders?
10. Finally, in the compose pane, automatically open it with "one CC" and "one BCC". Why do I have to click to add it?

Comments?

Gas Prices are High? No Worries -- Will Compensate!

Just read this news article, that GM is going to subsidize gas for drivers.

As I read this, my mind reacted in many ways.

1. Wow. Really, Wow. That shows how desperate and dire the state of affairs are for GM these days. "Please buy our guzzlers. Don't worry about the gas price. Heck, we will pay you the difference. But, please buy our cars."

2. The industry's "deadly addiction" to gas. It is clear that the US automobile industry is staring at the headlights standing in the middle of the road. It will be quite some time before GM and other vendors rejig their assembly lines for fuel-efficient / hybrid cars. The question is: do they have enough time, and will they even survive to see that day?

3. The shape of things to come. I think the next 20 years will usher in a new renaissance. Old companies that are too slow to adapt will be road kill. As the influence by such manufacturing companies wane, the political will towards big oil (and other carbon-fuel dependent industries) will no longer be benevolent. "Environmental conservation" will guide domestic and foreign affairs just as "civil and human rights" did from 1950 to 2000.

The question is, how rough will the journey be in the interim?